Wintermute的2025年数字资产场外交易市场报告显示，去年山寨币反弹平均持续约19–20天，远短于2024年大约60天的涨势。市场资金流动趋紧，许多小型代币的涨幅比以往更快消散，资金回流至流动性更深的Bitcoin和Ethereum。报告指称的一个关键触发点是2025年10月10日的急剧去杠杆，推动散户降低风险并从小市值代币中撤离。
许多山寨币期货合约的未平仓合约下降，部分报道指出自10月以来山寨币期货未平仓合约约下降55%。交易台表示，流动性下降使涨势难以维持超过几周，将过去的多月级别走势转变为短暂的爆发。机构资金流和产品结构发挥作用，ETF及其他机构渠道帮助资金流向Bitcoin和Ethereum，市场关注度趋于集中。
交易员表示，他们更偏好在不显著影响价格的情况下就能成交的资产。Wintermute的分析指向动量形成方式的改变，涨势推动者更加偏向策略性，而非广泛、持久的叙事。实践中，这意味着memecoin pumps和exchange-themed rallies burned out quickly.
Some traders described these moves as hair-trigger events: quick upswings followed by equally rapid retracements. Liquidity bands tightened and stops were hit sooner than in past cycles. Market participants say the path to a sustained altcoin season now requires a few things aligning.
Reports indicate renewed retail interest, clearer institutional support for smaller tokens, and calmer macro markets could help. Otherwise, rallies are likely to remain short. Execution desks reported that when big buyers reappeared for a token, it could run fast, but keeping that momentum proved difficult without deeper market participation.
Based on the report and market commentary, a broader crypto rebound in 2026 depends on several moving parts: interest from institutions, shifts in macro rates, and retail returning to risk-on strategies. If those elements arrive, rallies might last longer than the 19–20 day average seen in 2025. If not, traders say the pattern of quick, sharp moves into the majors will continue.
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